Division of Uttar Pradesh: To be or not to be?
Politics
The recent story
A viral social media news has been trending around the division of UP into 3 states, to the extent that it had to be personally denied from Uttar Pradesh government's Fact Check handle on Twitter. So today we look at UP, and the what if scenario of its bifurcation while understanding both sides of the coin.
How big is UP?
With a population of 200 million, Uttar Pradesh is currently the most populous subdivision in the entire world. If UP was a country, it would be the 5th most populous country, only behind China, India, US & Indonesia.
Should UP be divided?
Too big to be governed properly
Socio-Economic Reasons: Ranked in the bottom five in the Index for Sustainable Development Goals, population growth rate of UP is double that of India while per capita income is half of the national average.
Too much power for one state: UP has almost the same number of MPs as Karnataka, Rajasthan & Gujarat combined.
Religion and caste dominate the elections, often causing crime and violence. Enabling smaller states allows for more inclusivity and better administration.
Latest attempt to split UP by Mayawati
Mayawati’s 2011 proposal was the latest attempt to split UP. Her bill proposed dividing Uttar Pradesh into four new states:
Why should UP be not divided?
Development Disparity: Eastern regions of Bundelkhand & Purvanchal could face heavy ignorance in development and growth, since they aren’t high revenue-generating provinces.
People don't want it: No large scale state separation movements have happened that require attention from the Centre.
It might make more sense to divide the state on a district level, although that would dilute the CMO’s power.
Bifurcation examples of other Indian states:
Chhattisgarh (from Madhya Pradesh): Having faced the longest battle for getting separated, currently the resource-rich Chattisgarh is one of the fastest growing states in the country.
Jharkhand (from Bihar): Jharkhand had many tribunal communities facing misrepresentation and wanted separation to aid a socio-economic balance.
Telangana (from Andhra Pradesh): The Telugu speaking community had fought for more than a decade for its separation from Andhra Pradesh with the issue of Hyderabad and its revenue taking centerstage.
One of the most polarised states in the country
Uttar Pradesh remains one of the most polarised states in the country, owing to its vast population, regional segregations and economic inequalities. Hindus are in majority while Muslims are the largest religious minority. It is this cultural amalgamation that has helped our nation face extremely difficult times of terror and yet it is the glue that binds the state.
So if not the split, what can be done?
Enabling better district administration
Improving sectoral police
Enabling technology, growth & entrepreneurship in the state across all regions
This would be a more cost-efficient and time-intensive solution rather than splitting one of the most culturally significant parts of the nation.
Discrepancies in Covid death figures under-reported by as much as 2x
Covid-19
Covid deaths are under-reported by as much as 2x - not just in India, but also globally. Most of these deaths are “disguised” under comorbidities.
In light of this practice, now “all deaths with Covid-19 diagnosis, irrespective of comorbidities, will be classified as deaths due to Covid-19.” This came in response to the Supreme Court’s notice on the absence of a uniform policy on death counting and issuing death certificates to the MHA.
Seven states in question
On June 10, Bihar revised its figures to include people who died of the disease at home and in private hospitals. Because of this, the death toll increased to 9429 from 5424, a 72.8% hike.
Last week, between June 11-16, Maharashtra reported 11,052 Covid deaths, but also added 9000 deaths as “old deaths” as the state performed its death reconciliation exercise.
There are close to 4.8 lakhs unexplained excess deaths in just five states - Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Delhi. Revised official death data lead us to believe that the death toll is at least twice the current official figures.
The second wave In India hit its peak in mid-May meaning, most states saw the majority of Covid deaths happen during the past six to seven weeks. Death numbers will eventually be revised in all states and not just these seven states.
Global issue
The undercount in death numbers is prominent in countries even with robust surveillance systems. According to a WHO report, the global death toll of Covid-19 maybe 2 or 3 times higher than reported. The undercount is likely to be even more significant in India due to technical, cultural and logistical reasons.
Why are these deaths undercounted?
Officials have left out deceased patients with comorbidities. This practice is very widespread. Also, for a death to be declared due to Covid-19, a confirmed test is needed. Places where testing has been low, official numbers will be low.
As the second wave hit, medical facilities were overwhelmed, and many people died without receiving any medical attention at homes, in waiting rooms and even in parking lots outside hospitals.
Rural deaths grossly undercounted
The second wave hit rural India harshly where two-thirds of the Indian population lives and both test facilities and hospitals are far and few.
The country saw crematoriums across the country overburdened, especially in Northern states, making many families place bodies in the Ganga River or buried them in shallow graves at the river’s sand banks. These dead, in all possibility, would not have been registered as the victims of the pandemic.
Are the actual numbers important?
The SC directed the government to bring in uniformity and simplify the process of granting death certificates to the dependents of the people who died of Covid-19, so that the ex-gratia compensation of INR 4 lakh can be provided and families are not deprived.
Low recorded death rates during the first wave led to government narratives of successful handling of the pandemic and thus resulted in complacency which led to the devastating second wave. To fight Covid effectively, we need to know how widespread the disease is.
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