The US-Taliban Peace Deal is an ongoing negotiation between the Taliban, the US and the Afghan government, brokered by Pakistan. It started in 2018 for peaceful withdrawal of the US’s troops from Afghanistan after an 18 year war.
One key element of the deal is the Intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government for power sharing post-troop withdrawal that has recently taken place in Doha, Qatar.
So what happened in Afghanistan: Timeline
1979
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to help its “communist proxy” against insurgents. To fight this invasion, a “mujahideen” was brought in place as an Afghani Resistance with the help of CIA & ISI.
1989
By this year, the Soviets were kicked out.
1996 to 2001
After years of civil war, the Taliban and its Al-Qaeda allies ruled Afghanistan.
2001
Post the 9/11 attacks, the United States decided to enter the ‘war’ to curb terrorism against it.
2002
Since early 2002, Afghanistan has been slowly rebuilding with the collapse of Taliban & allies albeit with some ups and downs.
2014
The Obama administration announces withdrawal from Afghanistan.
2020
The Taliban peace deal is signed.
Wait, why talk with the Taliban?
Fighting an insurgency is an uphill task. The Taliban, after getting a safe haven in the neighbouring state of Pakistan, has been able to destabilize Afghanistan for years, bringing the US military - one of the most advanced militaries in the world- to a stalemate.
This has compelled the US, under Donald Trump, to speed up the withdrawal over the last couple of years before facing any more ‘humiliation’.
So, what does the ‘deal’ include?
Proportionate withdrawal of the US and NATO troops
Taliban to not use its individuals and group assets to threaten the USA or its allies
The release of about 5000 Taliban fighters captured by the establishment and 1000 people from the ‘other side’ captured by the Taliban
Removal of various sanctions on Taliban Leaders
Severance of Taliban’s ties with Al-Qaeda
What’s the problem with the deal?
Though the USA doesn’t recognize the Taliban as a state, the deal has been widely seen as negotiating terms for its surrender to the latter.
Instead of the established Afghan government steering the talks, it is the Taliban which is in a position of power, making the whole situation very lopsided. Also, the Taliban itself is fragmented and there is a possibility of one of the factions going rogue in the future.
The Implications
The US’s withdrawal can only be seen as a watershed moment for Afghanistan with fears of the Taliban coming back to power and implementing it’s version of Sharia laws and ultra-conservative lifestyle, undoing the progress made in the previous two decades.
Pakistan, being the one who brokered the deal, is in a comfortable strategic advantage, perhaps even holding the US to ransom. China can leverage Pakistan’s advantage to further its ambitious projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Belt & Road Initiative.
Implications for India
India has invested considerably in Afghanistan’s progress. This deal shifts the balance of power to Taliban which may jeopardise India’s interests, as the Taliban is widely believed to be a protégé of the Pakistani deep state.
An increase in Taliban’s political and military role and territorial control can undo the work India has carried out and also provide fertile grounds for breeding various anti-India terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed, especially in the backdrop of CAA, NRC & 370.