What is happening in Ethiopia?
Global Politics
The UN has declared a “full-scale humanitarian crisis” in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, where more than a hundred people have been reported dead, and over 27,000 Ethiopians have fled as refugees to Sudan.
The proceedings
In early November, PM Abiy Ahmed Ali said that Tigrayans had attacked a national military base. He responded by sending troops to the region.
A few days later, hundreds of civilians were stabbed with knives and machetes. It is not clear who was responsible for the attack.
On 14th November 2020, Tigrayan forces fired missiles at targets in Eritrea.
So what is happening?
There are two factors in play:
The conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and PM Abiy Ahmed Ali
The 20 year-old conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea (a country that shares a border with Tigray)
TPLF and Abiy Ahmed
The TPLF led Ethiopia's military and political aspects for decades before Abiy took office in 2018. In 2019, Abiy dissolved the ruling coalition, made up of several ethnically based regional parties, and merged them into a single, national party (Prosperity Party), which the TPLF refused to join.
The feud escalated in September 2020, when the Tigrayan officials held elections in the region despite a national ruling to postpone all elections due to the pandemic. Abiy refused to recognize results from the September vote, adding to hostilities.
The Ethiopian-Eritrean War
A two-year long war due to illegal invasion and disputed territories set the grounds for years of animosity between the nations. The war was resolved only in 2018, and PM Abiy Ahmed won a Nobel Peace Prize for his contribution in resolving the conflict.
Many veterans from the TPLF who participated in the war are now part of the Tigray region’s paramilitary forces. The animosity between these TPLF veterans and Eritrea continues till date, and has been an important factor in adding to the peace disruptions in the region.
What started as an intra-nation conflict could now escalate due to the firing of missiles into Eritrea, and trigger the recently resolved war between the 2 countries. Around 96,000 Eritrean refugees live in Tigray, sparking fears they could be displaced again.
A three-day deadline given by the Prime Minister to Tigray's forces to surrender expired on Tuesday. He has warned that “the final and crucial” military operation will soon be launched against the rulers of the country’s rebellious northern Tigray region, rejecting international pleas for de-escalation in the conflict.